NZ InfraWatch
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Defence Estate Modernisation
NZ Defence Force / Ministry of Defence · National / Multi-region
Regeneration of NZDF bases at Ohakea, Burnham, Linton, Devonport and Whenuapai. The Defence Estate Regeneration Programme is an alliance of about $2.1b with EY and Beca. The portfolio plan puts whole-of-life estate cost at about $12.6b to FY40.
50
Breakdown▾
Mixed signals Data: High
Delivery Confidence Score, 0 to 100, higher is better: a ranking of how strong this project's delivery signals are, not a probability. It blends eight factors, including the election risk and policy alignment shown below.
Each axis is a scoring factor (0 to 100)
Data current as at 16 Sept 2026, when the pipeline was last checked against its source.
Key facts
- Region
- National / Multi-region
- Sector
- Other
- Status
- Planning
- Estimated value
- $2.1b
- Indicative completion
- 2034
- Funding status
- Part Funded
- Lead organisation
- NZ Defence Force / Ministry of Defence
- Election risk
- High
Election risk assessment
Bipartisan support for defence following 2024 Defence Policy Review. AUKUS-adjacent investments may be scaled differently but core estate modernisation would continue.
Government priority alignment
HIGH: Aligns with the government's expanded defence investment following the 2024 Defence Policy Review.
Recent changes
- 2026-W37Major Estimated value down 40%: $3.5b → $2.1b.
Chronology
- 2022Defence Policy Review launched: first comprehensive review in 10+ years
- 2023National wins election; Defence Minister signals expanded investment commitment
- 2024Defence Policy Review final report: $12B+ infrastructure deficit identified. $3.5B 10-year programme funded
- 2025Estate programme begins: Ohakea runway upgrade, Devonport facilities
- 2028expectedMajor base upgrades at Burnham and Linton complete
- 2034expectedFull estate modernisation programme target