{
  "note": "Pre-election prediction, frozen before the 7 November 2026 election. After polling day these frozen ratings will be scored against actual outcomes. See /methodology/delivery-confidence/.",
  "frozenAt": "2026-07-13T08:27:25.327Z",
  "election": "2026-11-07",
  "scoreVersion": 4,
  "count": 75,
  "contentHash": "4cc0611b4ba7362ec03a31b33e9fd646a04b6f326235cf716d1162cb58018b2c",
  "predictions": [
    {
      "id": 1,
      "name": "City Rail Link (CRL)",
      "sector": "transport",
      "status": "Under Construction",
      "fundingStatus": "Fully Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 80,
      "band": "A",
      "electionRisk": "low",
      "likelihood": 2,
      "consequence": 2
    },
    {
      "id": 2,
      "name": "Auckland Light Rail (Cancelled)",
      "sector": "transport",
      "status": "Cancelled",
      "fundingStatus": "No Source",
      "deliveryConfidence": null,
      "band": "E",
      "electionRisk": "extreme",
      "likelihood": null,
      "consequence": null
    },
    {
      "id": 3,
      "name": "Eastern Busway: Pakuranga to Botany",
      "sector": "transport",
      "status": "Under Construction",
      "fundingStatus": "Fully Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 80,
      "band": "A",
      "electionRisk": "low",
      "likelihood": 2,
      "consequence": 2
    },
    {
      "id": 4,
      "name": "Penlink: Whangaparāoa Peninsula",
      "sector": "transport",
      "status": "Under Construction",
      "fundingStatus": "Fully Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 92,
      "band": "A",
      "electionRisk": "low",
      "likelihood": 2,
      "consequence": 2
    },
    {
      "id": 5,
      "name": "Mill Road Corridor: Auckland",
      "sector": "transport",
      "status": "Planning",
      "fundingStatus": "Part Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 58,
      "band": "C",
      "electionRisk": "high",
      "likelihood": 3,
      "consequence": 4
    },
    {
      "id": 7,
      "name": "Tauranga Northern Link: SH2 to SH29",
      "sector": "transport",
      "status": "Under Construction",
      "fundingStatus": "Fully Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 92,
      "band": "A",
      "electionRisk": "low",
      "likelihood": 2,
      "consequence": 2
    },
    {
      "id": 8,
      "name": "Wellington Transport Package (2nd Mt Victoria Tunnel)",
      "sector": "transport",
      "status": "Planning",
      "fundingStatus": "Part Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 56,
      "band": "C",
      "electionRisk": "high",
      "likelihood": 4,
      "consequence": 4
    },
    {
      "id": 9,
      "name": "New Dunedin Hospital",
      "sector": "health",
      "status": "Under Construction",
      "fundingStatus": "Fully Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 87,
      "band": "A",
      "electionRisk": "low",
      "likelihood": 2,
      "consequence": 2
    },
    {
      "id": 10,
      "name": "Local Water Done Well: National Programme",
      "sector": "water",
      "status": "Under Construction",
      "fundingStatus": "Part Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 71,
      "band": "B",
      "electionRisk": "medium",
      "likelihood": 3,
      "consequence": 3
    },
    {
      "id": 11,
      "name": "Wellington Water Infrastructure Renewals",
      "sector": "water",
      "status": "Under Construction",
      "fundingStatus": "Part Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 80,
      "band": "A",
      "electionRisk": "safe",
      "likelihood": 1,
      "consequence": 3
    },
    {
      "id": 12,
      "name": "Kāinga Ora Housing Development: Auckland",
      "sector": "housing",
      "status": "Under Construction",
      "fundingStatus": "Part Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 68,
      "band": "B",
      "electionRisk": "medium",
      "likelihood": 3,
      "consequence": 3
    },
    {
      "id": 13,
      "name": "Lake Onslow Pumped Hydro",
      "sector": "energy",
      "status": "Planning",
      "fundingStatus": "No Source",
      "deliveryConfidence": 39,
      "band": "D",
      "electionRisk": "extreme",
      "likelihood": 4,
      "consequence": 5
    },
    {
      "id": 14,
      "name": "Whangārei Hospital Redevelopment",
      "sector": "health",
      "status": "Under Construction",
      "fundingStatus": "Fully Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 90,
      "band": "A",
      "electionRisk": "low",
      "likelihood": 2,
      "consequence": 2
    },
    {
      "id": 16,
      "name": "Transpower Grid Upgrades: National",
      "sector": "energy",
      "status": "Under Construction",
      "fundingStatus": "Fully Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 94,
      "band": "A",
      "electionRisk": "safe",
      "likelihood": 1,
      "consequence": 2
    },
    {
      "id": 17,
      "name": "Auckland Watercare: Water Supply Upgrades",
      "sector": "water",
      "status": "Under Construction",
      "fundingStatus": "Fully Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 91,
      "band": "A",
      "electionRisk": "safe",
      "likelihood": 1,
      "consequence": 2
    },
    {
      "id": 18,
      "name": "Defence Estate Modernisation",
      "sector": "other",
      "status": "Planning",
      "fundingStatus": "Part Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 51,
      "band": "C",
      "electionRisk": "high",
      "likelihood": 3,
      "consequence": 4
    },
    {
      "id": 20,
      "name": "Nelson Tasman Regional Water",
      "sector": "water",
      "status": "Planning",
      "fundingStatus": "No Source",
      "deliveryConfidence": 49,
      "band": "D",
      "electionRisk": "medium",
      "likelihood": 2,
      "consequence": 5
    },
    {
      "id": 21,
      "name": "Tauranga City Centre Refresh",
      "sector": "other",
      "status": "Under Construction",
      "fundingStatus": "Fully Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 82,
      "band": "A",
      "electionRisk": "low",
      "likelihood": 2,
      "consequence": 2
    },
    {
      "id": 22,
      "name": "Queenstown Lakes Transport: Programme",
      "sector": "transport",
      "status": "Planning",
      "fundingStatus": "Part Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 60,
      "band": "C",
      "electionRisk": "medium",
      "likelihood": 2,
      "consequence": 4
    },
    {
      "id": 23,
      "name": "Hawke's Bay Cyclone Recovery: Infrastructure",
      "sector": "other",
      "status": "Under Construction",
      "fundingStatus": "Fully Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 86,
      "band": "A",
      "electionRisk": "low",
      "likelihood": 2,
      "consequence": 2
    },
    {
      "id": 24,
      "name": "Hamilton Southern Links",
      "sector": "transport",
      "status": "Planning",
      "fundingStatus": "Part Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 58,
      "band": "C",
      "electionRisk": "high",
      "likelihood": 3,
      "consequence": 4
    },
    {
      "id": 25,
      "name": "Ōtaki to North of Levin (Ō2NL)",
      "sector": "transport",
      "status": "Under Construction",
      "fundingStatus": "Fully Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 92,
      "band": "A",
      "electionRisk": "low",
      "likelihood": 2,
      "consequence": 2
    },
    {
      "id": 27,
      "name": "Palmerston North Hospital: Rebuild",
      "sector": "health",
      "status": "Planning",
      "fundingStatus": "Part Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 59,
      "band": "C",
      "electionRisk": "medium",
      "likelihood": 2,
      "consequence": 4
    },
    {
      "id": 29,
      "name": "Wellington International Airport Expansion",
      "sector": "transport",
      "status": "Planning",
      "fundingStatus": "Part Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 71,
      "band": "B",
      "electionRisk": "safe",
      "likelihood": 1,
      "consequence": 4
    },
    {
      "id": 30,
      "name": "KiwiRail: Rail Network Upgrades",
      "sector": "transport",
      "status": "Under Construction",
      "fundingStatus": "Fully Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 79,
      "band": "B",
      "electionRisk": "medium",
      "likelihood": 3,
      "consequence": 2
    },
    {
      "id": 31,
      "name": "Tairāwhiti / Gisborne Cyclone Recovery",
      "sector": "other",
      "status": "Under Construction",
      "fundingStatus": "Fully Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 86,
      "band": "A",
      "electionRisk": "low",
      "likelihood": 2,
      "consequence": 2
    },
    {
      "id": 32,
      "name": "Waitohi: Picton Ferry Precinct Redevelopment",
      "sector": "transport",
      "status": "Under Construction",
      "fundingStatus": "Fully Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 86,
      "band": "A",
      "electionRisk": "low",
      "likelihood": 2,
      "consequence": 2
    },
    {
      "id": 33,
      "name": "Hawke's Bay Regional Prison Expansion",
      "sector": "other",
      "status": "Under Construction",
      "fundingStatus": "Fully Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 85,
      "band": "A",
      "electionRisk": "low",
      "likelihood": 2,
      "consequence": 2
    },
    {
      "id": 34,
      "name": "Northland Transport: RoNS Corridor",
      "sector": "transport",
      "status": "Planning",
      "fundingStatus": "No Source",
      "deliveryConfidence": 43,
      "band": "D",
      "electionRisk": "extreme",
      "likelihood": 4,
      "consequence": 5
    },
    {
      "id": 35,
      "name": "University of Auckland: Campus Development",
      "sector": "education",
      "status": "Under Construction",
      "fundingStatus": "Fully Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 88,
      "band": "A",
      "electionRisk": "safe",
      "likelihood": 1,
      "consequence": 2
    },
    {
      "id": 36,
      "name": "Ministry of Education: School Property Programme",
      "sector": "education",
      "status": "Under Construction",
      "fundingStatus": "Part Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 67,
      "band": "B",
      "electionRisk": "medium",
      "likelihood": 3,
      "consequence": 3
    },
    {
      "id": 37,
      "name": "Interislander: New Cook Strait Ferries",
      "sector": "transport",
      "status": "Under Construction",
      "fundingStatus": "Fully Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 83,
      "band": "A",
      "electionRisk": "low",
      "likelihood": 2,
      "consequence": 2
    },
    {
      "id": 40,
      "name": "Ara Tūhono: Warkworth to Te Hana",
      "sector": "transport",
      "status": "Planning",
      "fundingStatus": "No Source",
      "deliveryConfidence": 44,
      "band": "D",
      "electionRisk": "extreme",
      "likelihood": 4,
      "consequence": 5
    },
    {
      "id": 41,
      "name": "Whai Kāinga Whai Oranga: Māori Housing",
      "sector": "housing",
      "status": "Under Construction",
      "fundingStatus": "Part Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 67,
      "band": "B",
      "electionRisk": "medium",
      "likelihood": 3,
      "consequence": 3
    },
    {
      "id": 42,
      "name": "Tauriko West & SH29 (Tauranga RoNS)",
      "sector": "transport",
      "status": "Planning",
      "fundingStatus": "No Source",
      "deliveryConfidence": 49,
      "band": "D",
      "electionRisk": "high",
      "likelihood": 3,
      "consequence": 5
    },
    {
      "id": 43,
      "name": "Wellington Harbour Quays: Seismic Strengthening",
      "sector": "other",
      "status": "Under Construction",
      "fundingStatus": "Fully Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 88,
      "band": "A",
      "electionRisk": "safe",
      "likelihood": 1,
      "consequence": 2
    },
    {
      "id": 44,
      "name": "Renewable Energy: Wind Farms (National)",
      "sector": "energy",
      "status": "Under Construction",
      "fundingStatus": "Fully Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 93,
      "band": "A",
      "electionRisk": "safe",
      "likelihood": 1,
      "consequence": 2
    },
    {
      "id": 45,
      "name": "Three Kings Quarry Development: Auckland",
      "sector": "housing",
      "status": "Under Construction",
      "fundingStatus": "Fully Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 89,
      "band": "A",
      "electionRisk": "safe",
      "likelihood": 1,
      "consequence": 2
    },
    {
      "id": 47,
      "name": "Marsden Point Energy Precinct & Import Terminal",
      "sector": "energy",
      "status": "Under Construction",
      "fundingStatus": "Fully Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 92,
      "band": "A",
      "electionRisk": "safe",
      "likelihood": 1,
      "consequence": 2
    },
    {
      "id": 48,
      "name": "Greater Christchurch: Housing Programme",
      "sector": "housing",
      "status": "Under Construction",
      "fundingStatus": "Part Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 67,
      "band": "B",
      "electionRisk": "medium",
      "likelihood": 3,
      "consequence": 3
    },
    {
      "id": 49,
      "name": "Dunedin Performing Arts: Redevelopment",
      "sector": "other",
      "status": "Planning",
      "fundingStatus": "No Source",
      "deliveryConfidence": 55,
      "band": "C",
      "electionRisk": "safe",
      "likelihood": 1,
      "consequence": 5
    },
    {
      "id": 50,
      "name": "Northland Broadband and Digital Infrastructure",
      "sector": "telecom",
      "status": "Under Construction",
      "fundingStatus": "Fully Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 85,
      "band": "A",
      "electionRisk": "low",
      "likelihood": 2,
      "consequence": 2
    },
    {
      "id": 51,
      "name": "East-West Link: Onehunga to Penrose",
      "sector": "transport",
      "status": "Planning",
      "fundingStatus": "Part Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 58,
      "band": "C",
      "electionRisk": "high",
      "likelihood": 4,
      "consequence": 4
    },
    {
      "id": 52,
      "name": "Northern Pathway: Auckland Harbour Cycling/Walking (Cancelled)",
      "sector": "transport",
      "status": "Cancelled",
      "fundingStatus": "No Source",
      "deliveryConfidence": null,
      "band": "E",
      "electionRisk": "extreme",
      "likelihood": null,
      "consequence": null
    },
    {
      "id": 53,
      "name": "Cambridge to Piarere Expressway (Waikato RoNS)",
      "sector": "transport",
      "status": "Under Construction",
      "fundingStatus": "Fully Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 92,
      "band": "A",
      "electionRisk": "low",
      "likelihood": 2,
      "consequence": 2
    },
    {
      "id": 55,
      "name": "Northwest Busway (Te Ara Hauāuru): Auckland",
      "sector": "transport",
      "status": "Planning",
      "fundingStatus": "Part Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 52,
      "band": "C",
      "electionRisk": "medium",
      "likelihood": 2,
      "consequence": 4
    },
    {
      "id": 57,
      "name": "Accessible Streets: Cycling/Walking Programme (Cancelled)",
      "sector": "transport",
      "status": "Cancelled",
      "fundingStatus": "No Source",
      "deliveryConfidence": null,
      "band": "E",
      "electionRisk": "extreme",
      "likelihood": null,
      "consequence": null
    },
    {
      "id": 59,
      "name": "Waitematā Harbour Connections: Additional Crossing",
      "sector": "transport",
      "status": "Planning",
      "fundingStatus": "No Source",
      "deliveryConfidence": 43,
      "band": "D",
      "electionRisk": "extreme",
      "likelihood": 4,
      "consequence": 5
    },
    {
      "id": 60,
      "name": "State Highway Resilience Programme: Budget 2026",
      "sector": "transport",
      "status": "Under Construction",
      "fundingStatus": "Fully Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 93,
      "band": "A",
      "electionRisk": "low",
      "likelihood": 2,
      "consequence": 2
    },
    {
      "id": 61,
      "name": "Tauranga Hospital Redevelopment",
      "sector": "health",
      "status": "Planning",
      "fundingStatus": "Part Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 59,
      "band": "C",
      "electionRisk": "medium",
      "likelihood": 2,
      "consequence": 4
    },
    {
      "id": 62,
      "name": "South Auckland Hospital: Future Site",
      "sector": "health",
      "status": "Planning",
      "fundingStatus": "Part Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 59,
      "band": "C",
      "electionRisk": "medium",
      "likelihood": 2,
      "consequence": 4
    },
    {
      "id": 63,
      "name": "School Redevelopment Programme: Budget 2026",
      "sector": "education",
      "status": "Planning",
      "fundingStatus": "Fully Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 70,
      "band": "B",
      "electionRisk": "medium",
      "likelihood": 2,
      "consequence": 3
    },
    {
      "id": 64,
      "name": "Microsoft Azure New Zealand North Region",
      "sector": "telecom",
      "status": "Complete",
      "fundingStatus": "Fully Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": null,
      "band": "A",
      "electionRisk": "safe",
      "likelihood": null,
      "consequence": null
    },
    {
      "id": 65,
      "name": "AWS Asia Pacific (Auckland) Region",
      "sector": "telecom",
      "status": "Complete",
      "fundingStatus": "Fully Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": null,
      "band": "A",
      "electionRisk": "safe",
      "likelihood": null,
      "consequence": null
    },
    {
      "id": 66,
      "name": "Datagrid AI Factory: Makarewa, Southland",
      "sector": "telecom",
      "status": "Under Construction",
      "fundingStatus": "Part Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 77,
      "band": "B",
      "electionRisk": "safe",
      "likelihood": 1,
      "consequence": 3
    },
    {
      "id": 67,
      "name": "SH6 Hope Bypass: Nelson/Tasman",
      "sector": "transport",
      "status": "Planning",
      "fundingStatus": "Part Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 58,
      "band": "C",
      "electionRisk": "high",
      "likelihood": 4,
      "consequence": 4
    },
    {
      "id": 68,
      "name": "SH1 Belfast to Pegasus Motorway & Woodend Bypass",
      "sector": "transport",
      "status": "Planning",
      "fundingStatus": "Part Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 59,
      "band": "C",
      "electionRisk": "high",
      "likelihood": 4,
      "consequence": 4
    },
    {
      "id": 69,
      "name": "SH1 Rolleston Access Improvements",
      "sector": "transport",
      "status": "Under Construction",
      "fundingStatus": "Fully Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 90,
      "band": "A",
      "electionRisk": "low",
      "likelihood": 2,
      "consequence": 2
    },
    {
      "id": 70,
      "name": "LNG Import Terminal: Port Taranaki",
      "sector": "energy",
      "status": "Planning",
      "fundingStatus": "No Source",
      "deliveryConfidence": 40,
      "band": "D",
      "electionRisk": "extreme",
      "likelihood": 4,
      "consequence": 5
    },
    {
      "id": 71,
      "name": "Ruakākā Energy Park: Battery & Solar",
      "sector": "energy",
      "status": "Under Construction",
      "fundingStatus": "Fully Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 94,
      "band": "A",
      "electionRisk": "safe",
      "likelihood": 1,
      "consequence": 2
    },
    {
      "id": 72,
      "name": "Te Rahui Solar Farm: Rangitāiki",
      "sector": "energy",
      "status": "Under Construction",
      "fundingStatus": "Fully Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 94,
      "band": "A",
      "electionRisk": "safe",
      "likelihood": 1,
      "consequence": 2
    },
    {
      "id": 73,
      "name": "Kaiwaikawe Wind Farm",
      "sector": "energy",
      "status": "Under Construction",
      "fundingStatus": "Fully Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 94,
      "band": "A",
      "electionRisk": "safe",
      "likelihood": 1,
      "consequence": 2
    },
    {
      "id": 74,
      "name": "Tauhei Solar Farm: Te Aroha West",
      "sector": "energy",
      "status": "Under Construction",
      "fundingStatus": "Fully Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 94,
      "band": "A",
      "electionRisk": "safe",
      "likelihood": 1,
      "consequence": 2
    },
    {
      "id": 75,
      "name": "Mahinerangi Wind Farm Stage 2 (Puke Kapo Hau)",
      "sector": "energy",
      "status": "Planning",
      "fundingStatus": "No Source",
      "deliveryConfidence": 63,
      "band": "C",
      "electionRisk": "safe",
      "likelihood": 1,
      "consequence": 5
    },
    {
      "id": 76,
      "name": "South Taranaki Offshore Wind Project",
      "sector": "energy",
      "status": "Planning",
      "fundingStatus": "No Source",
      "deliveryConfidence": 51,
      "band": "C",
      "electionRisk": "medium",
      "likelihood": 2,
      "consequence": 5
    },
    {
      "id": 77,
      "name": "Te Ara o Te Ata: Mt Messenger Bypass (SH3)",
      "sector": "transport",
      "status": "Under Construction",
      "fundingStatus": "Fully Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 93,
      "band": "A",
      "electionRisk": "low",
      "likelihood": 2,
      "consequence": 2
    },
    {
      "id": 78,
      "name": "Auckland Airport: Terminal Redevelopment",
      "sector": "transport",
      "status": "Under Construction",
      "fundingStatus": "Fully Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 94,
      "band": "A",
      "electionRisk": "safe",
      "likelihood": 1,
      "consequence": 2
    },
    {
      "id": 79,
      "name": "Central Interceptor: Auckland Wastewater Tunnel",
      "sector": "water",
      "status": "Under Construction",
      "fundingStatus": "Fully Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 94,
      "band": "A",
      "electionRisk": "safe",
      "likelihood": 1,
      "consequence": 2
    },
    {
      "id": 80,
      "name": "Nelson Hospital Redevelopment (Project Whakatupuranga)",
      "sector": "health",
      "status": "Under Construction",
      "fundingStatus": "Part Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 69,
      "band": "B",
      "electionRisk": "medium",
      "likelihood": 2,
      "consequence": 3
    },
    {
      "id": 81,
      "name": "SH1 Papakura to Drury Upgrade",
      "sector": "transport",
      "status": "Under Construction",
      "fundingStatus": "Fully Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 93,
      "band": "A",
      "electionRisk": "low",
      "likelihood": 2,
      "consequence": 2
    },
    {
      "id": 82,
      "name": "SH2 Melling Interchange",
      "sector": "transport",
      "status": "Under Construction",
      "fundingStatus": "Fully Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 92,
      "band": "A",
      "electionRisk": "low",
      "likelihood": 2,
      "consequence": 2
    },
    {
      "id": 83,
      "name": "Petone to Grenada Link Road (Wellington RoNS)",
      "sector": "transport",
      "status": "Planning",
      "fundingStatus": "No Source",
      "deliveryConfidence": 44,
      "band": "D",
      "electionRisk": "extreme",
      "likelihood": 4,
      "consequence": 5
    },
    {
      "id": 84,
      "name": "Bendigo-Ophir Gold Project",
      "sector": "mining",
      "status": "Planning",
      "fundingStatus": "Part Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 55,
      "band": "C",
      "electionRisk": "high",
      "likelihood": 4,
      "consequence": 4
    },
    {
      "id": 85,
      "name": "Waihi North Project",
      "sector": "mining",
      "status": "Under Construction",
      "fundingStatus": "Fully Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 82,
      "band": "A",
      "electionRisk": "medium",
      "likelihood": 3,
      "consequence": 2
    },
    {
      "id": 86,
      "name": "Snowy River Gold Project (Reefton)",
      "sector": "mining",
      "status": "Under Construction",
      "fundingStatus": "Fully Funded",
      "deliveryConfidence": 83,
      "band": "A",
      "electionRisk": "medium",
      "likelihood": 3,
      "consequence": 2
    }
  ]
}